With Alphonso Davies in the final stages of a renewal with Bayern Munich, Real Madrid faces a difficult decision this summer: activate Miguel Gutiérrez’s buyback clause or secure 50% of the profits from the potential sale of Girona . The big clubs are knocking on the door, namely Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal, and the Spaniard’s release clause of 35 million euros is not an obstacle for Premier League clubs. Given the buyback clause, Madrid could pull the trigger and recover their youth player for only 8 million euros.
Ferland Mendy and Fran García have a contract until 2027, with the former’s renewal pending official confirmation. Opinions on the three full-backs vary widely, but what does the data suggest?
Each player was analyzed using metrics per 90 minutes from the last 12 months of play (January 2024 – January 2025). The data is segmented into three key areas: defensive performance, offensive contribution and passing efficiency.
Defensive metrics
The key takeaway from the graph? Fran Garcia. It’s not surprising to see him surpass Miguel in defensive performance, but surpassing Mendy in all defensive metrics (especially possession-adjusted interceptions, duels per 90, and successful defensive actions per 90) is impressive.
Some of these terms may be opaque, so let’s break them down:
- Successful defensive actions by 90: Any defensive intervention that effectively disrupts the opponent’s play and helps regain or retain possession.
**This metric goes beyond tackles and interceptions and provides a holistic view of a player’s defensive efficiency.
- PAdj interceptions (possession-adjusted) per 90: Normalizes the numbers of interceptions based on team possession. Players on low possession teams naturally have more defensive actions, so this metric levels the playing field.
**This helps evaluate defensive awareness regardless of team tactics.
Context is crucial. As I have argued in previous podcasts that xG (expected goals) only tells part of the story, as it does not take into account opportunities created without a shot, goals disallowed for marginal offside or the player taking those shots (e.g. example, a long shot by Valverde against Camavinga): Mendy’s physical strength, positional awareness and defensive impact in key areas (back post defense, area defense and 1v1 isolation in the defensive third) are not capture completely. by these numbers.
Offensive contribution
Miguel Gutiérrez eclipses his counterparts in almost every offensive metric except progressive runs (a ball carry that moves the ball at least 30% closer to the opponent’s goal or covers significant ground forward). The data backs up the eye test: Miguel is more effective in the middle and final thirds than he is defensively.
However, his numbers may be slightly skewed, as Girona manager Míchel has pushed him further up the pitch this season, frequently using him as a left-back, left winger or even attacking midfielder. That tactical flexibility speaks of his versatility and technical quality.
Fran García, as a full-back, still puts up respectable numbers. He ranks in the 89th percentile for touches in the final third and around the 85th percentile for progressive runs and passes received in advanced areas. However, his offensive output is a significant drop-off compared to Miguel’s, while Mendy barely registers in many of these categories, which is unsurprising given long-standing criticism of his attacking limitations.
Passage efficiency
Miguel’s football IQ is what really sets him apart – a key reason why the big clubs are circling. Even during his time in the UEFA Youth League and with Castilla, his vision and passing ability stood out. Like Marcelo, he is more of a number 10 disguised as a full-back. With the right system and the freedom to focus on the attack, it can make a real difference.
That context is crucial: Can a club like Real Madrid accommodate an offensive full-back like Miguel? Marcelo thrived because the team structure allowed him to maximize his strengths. Would Miguel receive the same conditions to prosper?
Miguel’s defensive weaknesses are real and need a big jump or system coverage (not usually possible at RM – Marcelo needed Casemiro/Ramos/Xabi + Khedira and even then Coentrao would start in most of the important games)
– Matt (@MattW_MM) April 29, 2022
Verdict
The data confirms the eye test: Miguel is an attacking full-back who, if put in the right conditions, can make a difference in the final third. Fran García is a well-rounded presence with better defensive numbers than many give him credit for. Mendy, meanwhile, appears to be the weak link as his form has dipped in the last 12 months.
Before reviewing this data, I assumed that the left-back conversation next season would be Mendy plus Miguel or Fran. Mendy’s status in the team and his key role in previous league and Champions League triumphs led to that assumption. But if the Frenchman does not rediscover his best form – returning as Europe’s best 1v1 defender – serious discussions over his future may be necessary. Carlo Ancelotti remains a staunch supporter of Mendy, but Fran has worked his way into a more significant role this season.
Despite Miguel’s outstanding offensive metrics, there are still questions about his return. Does his skill set fit a team that arguably needs more defensive “workhorses” with transition speed? If Trent Alexander-Arnold joins, can they both coexist in the same system? It may make more sense for Madrid to take the 18 million euros of profit from the sale of Girona instead of complicating the balance of the squad. Building a competitive team consists of finding complementary profiles. Can Madrid set up the right system around a talent like Miguel? These are the questions that must be answered before deciding the future of Madrid’s left-back position.